曾经向媒体形容「向延绵而未知的雪山前进」月之暗面和杨植麟，现在正朝着亦敌亦友的DeepSeek亦步亦趋。

王学典事件感想:学界苦“学阀”久矣！

36530 ★

摘要：数据印证了库巴西的影响力。

但即便是金牌之下，个体的世界杯征程也可能藏着一些不那么舒适的真相。

1、巴登体育他和足球的渊源比马云深得多。

综合双方竞技状态、阵容完整性来看，西班牙的晋级概率明显更高，预测他们常规时间2-0取胜，其次是1-0小胜。巴登体育同时，NAND Flash晶圆供应端扩产周期较长，供需关系趋紧推动存储产品价格上涨。

2、世联赛四强定2席：巴西逆转日本晋级，中国女排落后日本16.16分

三期项目投产后，锂精矿总产能大幅扩容，规模化生产将进一步摊薄单吨采矿成本。

3、宏远速递！同曦提出要徐杰，朱芳雨做重要决定，黄明依获续约

但现实是，过去两年，原材料涨价时公司连成本都转嫁不出去。

4、我国消费潜力将持续释放

更令人遗憾的是，比赛结束后贝林厄姆情绪失控，对阿根廷球员瓦伦丁·巴科做出了掌掴动作，为这场失利增添了不和谐的注脚。

5、警惕暴雨

特斯拉单车营收42,230美元，比亚迪在2万至2.5万美元区间，根本不在一个价格带竞争；库存天数24天，远未达到危机水平，说明需求端并非元凶。

本周一，巴塞罗那2026年季前备战在甘伯体育城正式拉开帷幕。

长上下文推理需要频繁读取和移动数据，连续调用工具会增加CPU任务，分布式推理不断扩大KV缓存。

6、3年1500万！凯尔特人提前续约3D悍将沃尔什第三年球队选项

这支球队最大的特点就是防守坚韧、战术执行力强。

首轮2-1逆转捷克，场面全面占优，62%控球率与15次射门体现进攻主导，0-1落后情况下3分钟连入两球展现强大心理素质。

7、女篮世青赛第一黑马！日本连胜欧美三大劲旅：中国队真该警惕他们了？

自研芯片和新一代大模型可能成为扭转谷歌“掉队”的关键因素。

杨植麟的判断是，公司B/C轮融资金额就超过绝大部分IPO募资及上市公司的定向增发，因此“择时而动，主动权掌握在我们手中”。

8、用兴奋剂还能继续打！广东最大克星惨遭重大打击，山东北京被坑惨

近期有消息称，恩佐的经纪人已在探询今夏离队的可能性，随即传出皇家马德里对这位阿根廷国脚兴趣浓厚。

从数据来看，米兰前28轮场均被射门11次，后8轮场均11.62次，几乎没有变化。

他们场均控球率达到56%，既能掌控比赛节奏，也能在反击中制造威胁。

9、《经营方略》之“创新与转型”金句100条

巴萨的最终决定取决于多重因素：费兰的去留、青训的进展——年轻前锋哈姆扎·阿卜杜勒卡里姆被视为九号位值得期待的人选。

尽管在队内射手榜上暂以5球落后于哈里凯恩，但贝林厄姆在攻防两端的全面表现，让他再次跻身世界顶级中场行列。

10、条执行记录合计1.02亿！淄博周村城发高负债亏损，区属城建平台流动性承压

市场用脚投票的结果就是涨价这条路走不通，如今摆在各大手机厂商面前新的难题，已经从此前的成本控制，逐渐回归到市场份额和基本盘的竞争，千元机有望重新成为各大厂商竞争新的关键变量。

然而，在真正决定生死的淘汰赛深水区，这位“第一大英帝星”却未能延续超巨的统治力。

1、205㎡，法式轻复古治愈私宅

但以目前展现出的内容来看，难度显而易见。

2、布彭扎就位，卡内达官宣，浙江队2025剑指前六？

首轮5-1横扫突尼斯，伊萨克1球2助、约克雷斯传射建功、阿亚里梅开二度，锋线双子星完美联动，一度让外界惊呼北欧铁骑归来。

3、冯德莱恩突访基辅，签署无人机伙伴关系，称“局势正在扭转“

互换交易员预计下周7月议息会议加息的概率约34%至38%。进博溢出效应再结“硕果”：第九届进博会倒计时百天将近，全球首创罕见病药在沪正式应用这直接驱动光模块进入高景气周期，而中际旭创正是这条产业链上最大的受益者之一。

4、迎回老队长？广东男篮正接触周鹏有望回归曾效力16季豪取8冠

供需格局错配之下，兆易创新作为中国大陆唯一全面布局NOR Flash、SLC NAND、利基DRAM、通用MCU四大核心产品线的公司，正迎来收获期。

5、265米！深圳最“仙”的超高层，进入地面施工！

而新鲜零食以“鲜食”竞争者的身份加入，则在更大程度上削减了便利店的王牌项目。

6、上海中心城区发布高温橙色预警信号！注意防暑降温

当比赛变得艰难，费兰总是在那里。

戈登打入了英格兰足球60年来最重要的一粒进球——在世界杯半决赛阿根廷奇迹般逆转之前，这粒进球的分量无可比拟；而阿德耶米则是弗里克当年亲手在德国国家队完成首秀的爱将。

在此背景下，江波龙凭借与主要原厂续签的晶圆供应协议（LTA/MOU），锁定了行业稀缺的产能入场券。

7、泰山6出1进引质疑，送走本土中生代再引新援，情怀不敌竞技现实

博睿康6月11日获上交所科创板IPO受理，计划募资25亿元，目前处于问询阶段；据多家媒体报道，“杭州六小龙”中的强脑科技今年1月就以保密形式向港交所递交了上市申请，并与中金、瑞银合作筹备发行。

8月19日，巴萨将以甘伯杯对阵埃及冠军阿赫利为季前赛收官。

8、打了4年，乌撑不住了？中方提止战后，俄还没出手，基辅就迎变动

新易盛2025年归母净利润增速超过235%，势头凶猛；天孚通信凭借垂直整合模式在毛利率上同样表现亮眼。

然而，曼联方面并不情愿把球员卖给联赛中的直接竞争对手。

因此，首先，建设新的能力尖峰是大厂和模型创业公司都在借鉴的一层。

当被问及是否会公开谈话内容时，阿隆索的回答干脆利落："是的，我们谈过了。

曾是共享经济标杆！ofo陷失信困局1600万用户押金悬而未决 2026女性退休规定赵薇前夫黄有龙近况曝光！定居法国因心疾不能坐飞机，被名媛讨债 GEO行业案例分析：悠易科技

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斯堪尼亚两轴载货车来袭，800度电汕德卡G7S牵引车抢眼，工信部第408批新品公示之N类重型货车篇（上）

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想明白这三笔账，你就懂了：那 1 万块，买的不是你现在的产出，是你未来的可能性。[2026]

梅西最后一舞遗憾收场！丢了冠军，丢了金靴，丢了历史最佳射手

29907

Nexfin News — China’s lithium battery industry is undergoing a rite of passage, transitioning from wild expansion to disciplined competition. In the first half of the year, a rare divergence between surging corporate earnings and falling stock prices brought a permanent shift in the sector’s underlying dynamics into sharp focus. By mid-July, A-share lithium battery stocks pulled back despite dramatic midyear earnings forecasts. Tianqi Lithium projected net profit growth of up to 4,935% year-over-year, EVE Energy forecast a 95% to 110% increase, and both Sunwoda and REPT BATTERO turned profitable again. Across the supply chain—from upstream lithium salts to downstream battery makers—most companies reported substantial operational gains. Yet robust earnings failed to stop equity valuations from sliding. On July 8, Chengxin Lithium hit its daily downside limit, Yahua Group dropped over 15%, and Tinci Materials saw more than 30 billion yuan in market value evaporate within a week. Ganfeng Lithium has fallen roughly 38% from its peak, while market leader CATL is down about 20%. The immediate trigger for the selloff was the resumption of operations at CATL’s Jianxiawo lithium mine. On June 29, the mine secured its safety production permit, which was officially posted on the Credit China website on July 7. The site—the world’s largest single lepidolite mine—had been idle for over ten months. With an annual capacity of roughly 100,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate, it previously accounted for 8% to 10% of China’s total output. Its return brings over 45,000 tons of additional supply in the second half of the year, hitting elevated lithium prices head-on. Futures markets reacted instantly: on June 18, as restart speculation grew, the main lithium carbonate contract fell 6.58% in a single session, beginning a steady slide from its May high of 205,000 yuan per ton. This stark contrast between thriving industrial output and falling stock prices coincided on the surface with lithium carbonate pulling back rapidly from its May peak of 200,000 yuan per ton to 151,000 yuan. But a more critical question remains: is this the sign of a cyclical peak, or is the industry undergoing a profound revaluation? Answering that requires stepping back to examine the paradigm shift that unfolded across the lithium battery sector between 2025 and 2026. The essence of this shift is not the fluctuation of any single price signal, but a permanent realignment of the industry's competitive playbook—moving from "who expands the fastest" to "who possesses technology, steady profits, and global compliance capabilities." From 60,000 to 200,000 In late June 2025, battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped below 60,000 yuan per ton, touching a three-year low of 59,900 yuan. Lithium salt producers across the sector incurred heavy losses, forcing widespread shutdowns among small and medium-sized manufacturers. From Australian hard-rock mines and small African projects to domestic lepidolite producers, virtually all marginal capacity went offline that summer. A two-and-a-half-year price slump accomplished its single necessary function: clearing out excess supply. By the fourth quarter of 2025, supply and demand dynamics reversed faster than the market had anticipated. The initial spark came from energy storage demand. Data from research firms including InfoLink show that global energy storage cell shipments reached roughly 610 GWh in 2025, up over 90% year-over-year, with fourth-quarter volumes alone topping 200 GWh. Production schedules showed energy storage cells clearing lithium carbonate inventories at an accelerating quarter-over-quarter pace. As growth in electric vehicle batteries moderated, energy storage stepped in not just to absorb excess capacity, but as the industry's primary growth engine. Surging demand was only half the story; supply contracted just as sharply. Small African mines and high-cost domestic lepidolite operations exited the market. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe announced a temporary suspension of lithium concentrate exports in February—a country that accounted for 15.5% of China’s lithium concentrate imports in 2025. Although Australia remained the primary pillar of China's upstream raw material supply at over 50%, the policy further tightened market expectations surrounding upstream supply. Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines later confirmed that a formal export ban would take effect in January 2027. The tension between supply and demand peaked with the onset of a structural global deficit. Morgan Stanley estimated in early 2026 that the global market would face a shortfall of roughly 100,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) for the year. Soochow Securities calculated total annual lithium mine supply at approximately 2.14 million tons, representing 440,000 tons of new capacity—most of which was not slated to come online until after the third quarter. That timing gap fueled the price rally during the first half of the year. Driven by these converging forces and inventory restocking across midstream channels, lithium carbonate surged from 70,000 yuan per ton in October 2025 to 200,000 yuan by May 2026. Unlike the speculative frenzy that drove prices to 600,000 yuan in 2022, this recovery occurred after capacity had been fully built out, anchored firmly by real end-user demand. Gaogong Industry Research Institute (GGII) summarized the shift: "This is not a bubble, but a return to fundamental value. The structural surge in energy storage demand, combined with supply-side consolidation, has redefined a rational price band for lithium." Prices doubled quickly due to market sentiment and downstream stockpiling. July’s price correction reflected two main factors: the gradual release of new supply and downstream resistance to inflated raw material costs. Analysts generally expect lithium carbonate to trade within a median range of 120,000 to 160,000 yuan per ton for the full year—a price level that keeps most producers profitable without triggering another round of reckless expansion. Energy Storage as the New Engine In the first half of 2026, China's energy storage battery shipments reached roughly 485 GWh, a year-over-year increase of over 80%. Over the same period, power battery shipments totaled roughly 630 GWh, up over 30%. The gap between the two segments is narrowing rapidly. Structural figures are even more telling. In the first quarter of 2026, Chinese energy storage battery shipments totaled about 209 GWh, up 115% year-over-year and accounting for roughly 40% of total lithium battery shipments. By June, energy storage cells made up nearly 41% of monthly production schedules—up from around 30% a year earlier. According to InfoLink, full-year energy storage cell shipments in 2025 reached roughly 610 GWh, approaching 70% of power battery shipments over the same timeframe. Energy storage is no longer a side business for battery makers; it has emerged as an independent market reshaping demand across the industry. Behind this market realignment lies a fundamental shift in purchasing drivers. Before 2024, domestic energy storage growth was driven primarily by mandatory integration policies, which required wind and solar projects to install storage capacity. That regulatory setup created low-quality demand, leading to poor utilization, weak financial returns, and inconsistent cell quality. Between 2025 and 2026, market dynamics pivoted from regulatory compliance to commercial economics. The shift first materialized in the domestic market. In early 2026, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued new capacity pricing regulations (NDRC Pricing [2026] No. 114), establishing a national capacity tariff mechanism for standalone energy storage facilities. Local standards were set between 165 and 330 yuan per kilowatt-year, depending on the province. Surveys by Soochow Securities indicated that internal rates of return (IRR) for storage stations in several provinces crossed the 6% threshold required for commercial viability, especially where peak-to-valley price spreads exceeded 0.3 yuan per kWh. IRRs for top-tier projects reached as high as 10%, fundamentally improving overall demand quality. This domestic turning point coincided with an explosion in international demand. Major solar-plus-storage projects launched across the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, with individual project capacities regularly reaching several gigawatt-hours. In emerging markets across Australia, Southeast Asia, and Africa, weak power grids and rising renewable energy penetration transformed energy storage from an optional luxury into a necessity. Soochow Securities calculated that utility-scale storage installations in emerging markets grew 233% year-over-year in 2025, with an additional 69% increase projected for 2026. In Europe, energy security concerns and green energy quotas kept commercial, industrial, and residential demand robust. GGII projects that global energy storage battery shipments in 2026 will reach 800 to 1,100 GWh, representing year-over-year growth of 30% to 70%. Even at the mid-point estimate of 900 GWh, energy storage output is positioned to approach or match power battery production this year. As the industry's primary growth engine shifts, its core operational requirements are evolving as well. Power battery demand is dominated by automakers, whose priority is cost efficiency. The customer base for energy storage, however, is far more diverse: utility operators prioritize long cycle life and safety, data center owners require high discharge rates and extreme reliability, and overseas projects demand lifecycle compliance and supply-chain traceability. Winning in these markets requires technological adaptation, solid project execution, and international compliance capabilities rather than sheer scale. Oversupply or Industry Maturity? Evaluating battery utilization rates requires a closer look at the underlying numbers. In May 2026, the single-month installation rate for Chinese power batteries dropped to roughly 38%. Over the first five months of the year, cumulative power battery installations totaled 259 GWh against 863 GWh produced—yielding an overall utilization rate of about 30%. Factory output continues to outpace vehicle installations, leaving a substantial share of manufacturing lines underutilized. The five-year trajectory of Chinese power battery installation rates tells a clear story: 70% in 2021, 54% in 2022, roughly 52% in 2023, 50% in 2024, 44% in 2025, and 38% by May 2026. This steady decline in installation rates offers clear evidence of an industry transitioning from rapid early growth into maturity. Yet labeling the sector simply as oversupplied misses crucial nuances. The market is not experiencing a uniform glut; rather, it is undergoing sharp structural polarization. High-end shortages coexist alongside low-end surpluses. Demand for premium batteries with energy densities above 160 Wh/kg—primarily ternary chemistries—rebounded sharply, rising from a 6% market share in 2025 to 11%. Meanwhile, low-end products under 125 Wh/kg have effectively been phased out. Demand has also diverged sharply between commercial and passenger vehicles. Driven by subsidy policies, battery demand for electric heavy trucks and delivery vans surged, with battery consumption for electric cargo vans rising 169% year-over-year. By contrast, electric buses—once the industry's primary market—fell to fifth place. While market leadership remains dynamic, the nature of competitive moats is shifting. CATL and BYD together retain a 68% market share, but second-tier players like Gotion High-tech, EVE Energy, Svolt Energy, and Hithium are making gains. Competition is shifting from pure capacity expansion to technological differentiation and operating margins. From another perspective, declining installation rates are a natural hallmark of industry maturity. As annual growth moderates, a drop in capacity utilization from 70% to 40% is to be expected. While systemic capacity pressures continue to weigh on industry-wide profitability, and smaller players face ongoing price competition, market leaders retain the balance sheet strength to navigate the transition. As top-line growth slows, manufacturers lacking proprietary technology, accumulated capital, or global compliance infrastructure risk being squeezed out. This shift explains recent strategic course corrections by major capital allocators. Anode producer Sinomatech canceled a 10.3 billion yuan expansion, cathode supplier Dynanonic abandoned a 10 billion yuan project, and separator manufacturer Semcorp terminated a roughly 2 billion yuan facility in Malaysia. Top-tier players reining in massive investments is a classic sign of an industry transitioning from early expansion to financial discipline. This reallocation of capital does not mean expansion has halted entirely. In the first half of 2026, manufacturers announced over 65 new planned projects representing more than 1,500 GWh of capacity and over 220 billion yuan in total investment. Hunan Yuneng disclosed a 24 billion yuan expansion, while Yahua Group announced additional capacity in Zimbabwe. Expansion continues, but the prerequisites have changed: only enterprises with strong technical barriers, cash reserves, and global compliance infrastructure are positioned to invest while competitors scale back. Technology Race 2.0: Three Fronts If the period between 2022 and 2024 was defined by a race for manufacturing scale, 2025 and 2026 have marked a pivot toward technological differentiation across three distinct fronts. Front One: Structural Shortages in 314Ah Cells The central operational focus for the energy storage supply chain in 2026 has been a structural shortage of 314Ah cells rather than short-term price swings in raw lithium. By March, average spot prices for 314Ah cells from tier-one manufacturers approached 0.40 yuan per Wh, with small-lot orders reaching 0.45 yuan per Wh—a surge of over 25% within six months compared to the 0.30 to 0.34 yuan per Wh seen in August 2025. The immediate driver was rising raw lithium costs—at 180,000 yuan per ton of lithium carbonate, theoretical cell production costs sit between 0.35 and 0.38 yuan per Wh. However, the root cause was a supply gap during the industry's transition to larger formats. As manufacturers shift from 280Ah and 314Ah form factors toward 500Ah+ designs, investment in legacy 314Ah production lines has largely ceased. Because next-generation 500Ah+ cell capacity will not scale up until late 2026, production ramps and customer testing created a temporary bottleneck. During this supply gap, the deficit widened significantly, pushing delivery timelines for select orders into 2027. This dynamic reflects a clear shift in industry economics: market returns are no longer guaranteed simply by bringing capacity online, but by executing format transitions ahead of competitors. CATL has already deployed its 587Ah cell in a 2.4 GWh standalone storage project in Inner Mongolia, while EVE Energy has accelerated mass production of its 628Ah format. With the shift toward larger cell formats underway, manufacturing execution is everything. While 314Ah supply constraints present an immediate operational challenge, solid-state technology represents the long-term competitive battlefield. Front Two: A Return to Realism in Solid-State Batteries Although 2026 has been touted as the inaugural year for commercial solid-state battery deployment, that label requires qualification: current production consists almost entirely of semi-solid (hybrid liquid-solid) chemistries. Models including the NIO ET9, MG4, GAC Hyper, and Chery vehicles have entered the market equipped with semi-solid packs featuring energy densities between 350 and 400 Wh/kg. Because these designs remain compatible with over 90% of existing liquid battery production lines, retooling costs remain manageable and rollout schedules are accelerating. However, the commercial reality of all-solid-state technology remains far more complex than vehicle showroom specifications suggest. In March 2026, Ouyang Minggao, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, offered a candid assessment: "To be prudent, it is best not to commercialize all-solid-state battery vehicles over the next two years." He cited three major technical hurdles: solid-solid interface stability, where microscopic gaps between solid electrolytes and electrodes cause internal resistance to spike; lithium dendrite formation and safety risks; and the environmental volatility of sulfide electrolytes, which decompose upon exposure to moisture and demand strict manufacturing conditions. Industry leaders report steady if measured progress. CATL’s sulfide-based solid-state cell has surpassed an energy density of 500 Wh/kg, with small-scale production anticipated in 2027. BYD’s 20 GWh facility in Chongqing is scheduled to begin semi-solid production in the third quarter of 2026, targeting pilot runs for all-solid-state cells in 2027. Gotion High-tech plans to initiate operations on a 2 GWh solid-state line by late 2026, while EVE Energy has produced sample 60Ah solid-state cells. A clear timeline has taken shape: 2026 is focused on pilot line verification, 2027 on vehicle testing, and 2030 on potential large-scale commercialization. The implementation of recommended national standard GB/T 43568-2026 (Solid-State Batteries for Electric Vehicles) on July 1, 2026, established an initial regulatory framework for long-term development. Ultimately, 2026 marks less the mass adoption of solid-state technology than a recalibration of market expectations. Meanwhile, an underappreciated demand driver is quietly gathering momentum. Front Three: AIDC Storage as AI Infrastructure In the first five months of 2026, global energy storage shipments for AI data centers (AIDC) reached 10 GWh, surpassing total volume for all of 2025. Industry research firms project that global AIDC storage demand will reach 300 to 400 GWh by 2030—more than twenty times its 2025 level. Capital deployment in the segment is ramping up. CATL invested roughly 4.1 billion yuan to acquire a strategic stake in Senter Power to secure positioning in high-voltage DC power distribution for data centers, while winning a bid for a 2 GW / 4 GWh storage project at a computing center in Guizhou. Fluence signed agreements covering a 12 GW pipeline of potential projects with two major U.S. cloud providers, LG secured eight data center storage contracts totaling 6 GWh—including projects for Oracle—and Panasonic announced 350 billion yen in battery investment aimed at tripling its data center storage revenue. The expansion of AIDC storage is driven by a widening gap between AI computing power demands and utility grid capacity. Power consumption per rack in modern AI facilities has jumped from 5–8 kW in traditional data centers to 40–100 kW, while grid connection approvals and capacity upgrades often take three to five years. Onsite battery systems serve both as backup power and as a bridge to accelerate facility commissioning. Energy storage is moving from an auxiliary fallback to an integrated structural component of data centers. Following NVIDIA’s October 2025 announcement of an 800V DC power architecture—designed to phase out diesel generators and legacy uninterruptible power supplies (UPS)—storage systems are being wired directly into primary distribution networks. This shift expands the market beyond traditional buyers like power utilities and renewable energy developers to encompass cloud providers and infrastructure operators, establishing a distinct category of demand. Globalization 2.0 While domestic market consolidation marks the industry’s initial transition to maturity, international expansion presents a secondary test. Tariff structures, raw material access, and regulatory standards are tightening concurrently across major export markets. Trade barriers represent the most immediate hurdle. The European Union’s countervailing duties on Chinese battery electric vehicles have been in effect for five years and are expanding to include plug-in hybrids. In the United States, the Inflation Reduction Act continues to raise domestic content requirements for power and energy storage batteries. Concurrently, China has reduced its export tax rebates for batteries from 9% to 6% as of April 2026, with complete elimination scheduled for January 2027. Rising trade costs are accelerating a shift from direct product exports to localized overseas manufacturing. At the same time, competition over raw materials is intensifying. The U.S.-led Minerals Security Partnership continues work to build key mineral supply chains outside China, while changing rules in jurisdictions like Zimbabwe highlight shifting export policies. Strategic positioning across raw material supply chains remains an ongoing operational priority. Regulatory compliance presents a quieter but more complex technical hurdle. The European Union’s Battery Passport regulations will become mandatory on February 18, 2027, requiring detailed disclosure of lifecycle carbon footprints, material origins, and recycled content percentages. The impact of these rules depends heavily on how accounting frameworks are defined; systematic discrepancies in baseline emissions databases regarding Chinese energy mixes or manufacturing processes could affect market access. In response, leading Chinese manufacturers are moving from passive compliance to active engagement with international standards. CATL has partnered with BMW and Germany’s Catena-X network to help establish over 90 baseline carbon accounting metrics. BYD invested over 100 million yuan to develop its "i-Carbon Chain" platform for digital carbon tracking across its supply chain. Similarly, REPT BATTERO collaborated with TÜV Rheinland and Circulor on a battery passport initiative, securing third-party verification for 98 independent datasets from an EU Notified Body. Overseas manufacturing footprints are expanding in tandem: CATL’s production complex in Hungary, BYD’s plant in Brazil, Gotion High-tech’s joint venture in the United States, and Envision AESC’s gigafactory in Spain. Chinese battery makers are transitioning from a model of centralized domestic production for export toward localized manufacturing aligned with international standards. This next phase of international expansion hinges on regulatory transparency, supply chain control, and deep local integration. Beyond Maturity In July 2026, as equity valuations diverged from corporate earnings across the lithium sector, market participants wrestled with where the industry stands in its broader evolution. The most visible change is the shift in growth drivers. With energy storage shipments reaching 485 GWh in the first half of the year to account for over 40% of total output, the gap between storage and mobility applications is closing rapidly. This demand-side pivot coincides with capacity rebalancing on the supply side, where power battery installation rates have adjusted from 70% down to the 30%–40% range, signaling an end to early, unbridled expansion while overall margins remain under pressure. These structural shifts are redefining entry barriers across the market. With 314Ah cell prices rising over 25% in six months and AIDC storage demand expanding rapidly, technical capabilities are increasingly determining market positioning. As national standards for solid-state technology take effect and EU Battery Passport deadlines approach, regulatory compliance has become a baseline operational requirement. The trajectory of lithium carbonate—falling to 60,000 yuan, rebounding to 200,000, and settling near 150,000—reflects a market seeking equilibrium. This broader transition was highlighted by a joint policy announcement on July 18, when three Chinese government ministries introduced a new consumption tax structure for batteries. Effective September 1, lithium-ion batteries are subject to a 2% consumption tax, rising to 4% in September 2027, while sodium-ion and solid-state batteries remain exempt through the end of 2028. The policy ends a tax exemption for lithium batteries that spanned more than a decade. Phasing in taxation uses fiscal policy to encourage capacity optimization and technological upgrading by taxing established chemistries while incentivizing next-generation alternatives. For second-tier cell makers operating on narrow margins, the 2% tax burden—equivalent to roughly 0.007 to 0.008 yuan per Wh—will further compress operating margins, reinforcing market consolidation around capitalized leaders. For China's lithium battery industry, 2026 represents a clear inflection point. Enterprises equipped with proprietary technology, international compliance frameworks, and established brand equity face a broader global landscape as the sector matures. Conversely, manufacturers reliant on single customers, lacking technical moats, or unable to meet evolving compliance standards face mounting pressure. The early expansion phase of the lithium battery industry has drawn to a close. Its mature chapter is just beginning. (This article was first published on the TMTPost App. Author | AGI-Signal, Editor | Zhao Hongyu)梅西走下世界杯赛场，变身硅谷投资人。

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